Will NVO's U.S. Price Cuts Boost Access & Revive Semaglutide Demand?

Core Insights - Novo Nordisk has announced a limited-time promotional price of $199 per month for its semaglutide-based injections, Wegovy and Ozempic, for new self-pay patients in the U.S. until March 31, 2026 [1][11] - The pricing strategy aims to expand access to FDA-approved treatments and regain market share from competitors, particularly Eli Lilly [3][5][11] Pricing Strategy - The promotional rate applies to the first two months of treatment at the lowest doses (0.25 mg and 0.5 mg), after which the price will increase to a reduced standard self-pay price of $349 per month, down from $499 [2] - Existing self-pay patients will also see their prices reduced to $349 per month, while the price for Ozempic 2 mg remains unchanged at $499 [2] Market Context - These pricing changes are part of a broader agreement with the U.S. Administration to enhance access to obesity and diabetes treatments, with implementation occurring earlier than planned [3] - Novo Nordisk's strategy includes steering patients away from unsafe compounded products, which have negatively impacted demand for its offerings [4] Competitive Landscape - Novo Nordisk is attempting to reclaim market share from Eli Lilly, whose tirzepatide-based drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, have seen significant revenue growth, with combined sales of $24.8 billion in the first nine months of 2025 [5][7] - Eli Lilly's recent strong financial performance has led to raised revenue and EPS guidance for 2025, highlighting the competitive pressure on Novo Nordisk [7] Financial Performance - Year-to-date, Novo Nordisk shares have decreased by 44.6%, underperforming the industry average growth of 16.1% [12] - The company's stock is currently trading at a price/earnings ratio of 13.06, lower than the industry average of 17.05, indicating a potential undervaluation [15] Earnings Estimates - Earnings estimates for 2025 have declined from $3.84 to $3.58 per share over the past 60 days, with 2026 estimates also decreasing from $3.95 to $3.65 [19] - The trend indicates a downward revision in earnings expectations, reflecting challenges faced by the company [19]