【中金固收·信用】债市延续小幅震荡

Market Overview - The bond market experienced slight fluctuations last week, with the long-end performing better than the short-end. The overall bond yields showed narrow movements, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 1 basis point to 1.82% [2] - The issuance of non-financial credit bonds increased significantly, with a primary issuance volume of 409.6 billion yuan, up from 270.2 billion yuan the previous week. The net financing amount rose from 23.1 billion yuan to 132.4 billion yuan [2][3] Credit Bond Demand - Various institutional types showed net buying, although most experienced a decline compared to the previous period. Specifically, the net buying by wealth management decreased from 10.7 billion yuan to 5.5 billion yuan, while funds increased from 27 billion yuan to 34.5 billion yuan [3] - The net buying by insurance companies dropped from 8.2 billion yuan to 3.3 billion yuan, while other asset management institutions increased their net buying from 2.3 billion yuan to 10.3 billion yuan [3] Future Outlook - In the short term, the current market trend is expected to continue, but attention should be paid to stock market movements. A sustained decline in the stock market could lead to redemptions in fixed-income products, triggering bond sell-offs and upward pressure on yields [1][4] - The demand for credit bonds is anticipated to increase, particularly for bonds with maturities of 5-7 years, as a significant amount of amortized cost bond funds will enter the open period in the first half of 2026 [1][4] Issuance Analysis - This week, 418 non-financial credit bonds were issued, totaling 407.8 billion yuan, with a net increase of 130.6 billion yuan, marking a 51% rise in issuance volume and a 465% increase in net increase compared to the previous week [9] - The majority of net increases came from 1-3 year AAA-rated bonds, contributing 110 billion yuan in issuance and 45.1 billion yuan in net increase [9] Yield Trends - The issuance yields varied by rating and maturity, with AAA-rated bonds for maturities of 1 year or less, 1-3 years, and 3-5 years decreasing by 5 basis points, 8 basis points, and 8 basis points respectively [10] - For AA+ rated bonds, the yields for 1 year or less and 1-3 years changed by -3 basis points and 0 basis points, while 3-5 years saw an increase of 30 basis points [10]