Can CVNA Reclaim $400? Explaining Carvana's Upgrade & Example Options Trade

Core Viewpoint - Carvana's stock has experienced significant volatility, trading at over $350 in December 2022 and peaking at over $400 in July 2023, but has since pulled back 25% from that high while still being up over 50% year-to-date in 2025 [1] Company Performance - Carvana has been upgraded by Wed Bush to an "outperform" rating with a price target of $400, reflecting improved unit economics and profitability, generating approximately $629 million on $18 billion in sales last year [3][4] - The company has seen a significant increase in sales and profitability, especially as competitors like Vroom and Shift have gone bankrupt, positioning Carvana favorably in the used car retail market [5] Stock Analysis - The stock has pulled back about 23% since early October, but analysts see a compelling risk-reward scenario with limited downside risk, as it appears to be bouncing off its 200-day moving average [6][7] - Current earnings estimates for Carvana are around $547 million for this year, with projections of $7.35 per share for 2026, placing the stock at approximately 42 times next year's earnings [7] Market Context - The overall market for used car retailers is positive, with Carvana's stock rising nearly 7% following the upgrade, alongside gains in competitors like Autoation and CarMax [2] - The market sentiment is influenced by expectations of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which could further benefit stocks like Carvana [11][14]