以往紧跟鲍威尔的旧金山联储Daly：担心劳动力市场突然恶化，支持12月降息

Core Viewpoint - The San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly supports a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting, citing a greater risk of sudden deterioration in the labor market compared to inflation management [1]. Group 1: Labor Market Risks - Daly emphasizes that the current balance of "few hires and few layoffs" in the economy is becoming increasingly fragile, and any additional layoffs or lower-than-expected output growth could significantly weaken the labor market [2]. - She believes that the Fed can bring inflation back to the 2% target without increasing the unemployment rate, despite the current inflation rate hovering around 3% [2]. - The focus of policy considerations has shifted towards the labor market, indicating that preventing sudden labor market deterioration is now a top priority [2]. Group 2: Internal Committee Disagreements - Daly responds to concerns from some Fed officials about the risks of premature rate cuts potentially limiting future policy options, arguing that the Fed should not refrain from cutting rates now due to fears of needing to reverse policy later [3]. - She highlights the unusual level of disagreement among Fed officials as a reflection of real-world uncertainties, stating that consensus is not the goal of their responsibilities [4]. - Daly describes the upcoming decision as a "test of judgment," weighing the risks of inaction against the risks of action, suggesting that she perceives the risks of cutting rates as lower than others do [4].