宋清辉：创纪录的美国政府“停摆”，进一步凸显美国经济衰退风险

Core Viewpoint - The record government shutdown in the U.S. has highlighted the risk of economic recession, with significant negative impacts expected on economic data and policy decision-making [1][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The government shutdown lasted for 43 days, marking the longest in U.S. history, and has been estimated to cause a loss of approximately $1.5 trillion [3][4]. - The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the shutdown would result in a net loss of about $11 billion, with some canceled travel plans and federal contractors unable to recover all losses [7]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has noted signs of economic weakness in the U.S., predicting that GDP growth for the current quarter may fall below the previously forecasted 1.9% due to the impacts of the shutdown [7][8]. Group 2: Policy and Governance - The shutdown has raised concerns about the stability and fiscal governance of the U.S. government, with international observers expressing worries about its ability to manage fiscal policies effectively [1][7]. - The temporary funding bill signed by President Trump is seen as a stopgap measure, with ongoing political struggles between conservative and moderate factions suggesting a risk of future shutdowns [8]. - The shutdown has been characterized as a tool for political bargaining, potentially undermining the flexibility of fiscal policy in the future [8].