专访彭博全球首席经济学家欧乐鹰：巨变潮涌，美国全球贸易份额正在收缩

Group 1: Global Trade and Economic Impact - The escalation of U.S. tariff policies is significantly altering global trade structures and economic growth paths, with average tariffs rising from approximately 2% to about 15% under the Trump administration, leading to a projected 20% decline in exports to the U.S. compared to a no-tariff scenario [1][13] - The World Trade Organization (WTO) warns that the current U.S. tariff policies are causing unprecedented damage to the international trade system, predicting only a 0.5% growth in global goods trade by 2026 [1] - The U.S. is expected to see a shrinking role in the global trade system as countries seek alternative markets due to rising export barriers [1][13] Group 2: Economic Growth Projections - Bloomberg Economics forecasts a slowdown in global economic growth to 2.9% in 2026, down from 3.2% in 2025, largely due to the delayed impact of tariffs on trade [2][5] - The potential for significant U.S. investments could serve as a growth driver, while risks from AI market corrections and financial market volatility could suppress consumer confidence and economic growth [5][6] Group 3: European Economic Dynamics - Europe is facing long-term economic challenges, including energy crises, geopolitical tensions, and high interest rates, but is also showing signs of resilience through systemic reforms and increased infrastructure spending [2][7] - The former ECB President Draghi's reform proposals and Germany's commitment to boost infrastructure and defense spending indicate a shift towards a more resilient growth model in Europe [2][7] Group 4: Dollar's Global Role - The dominance of the U.S. dollar is being questioned, but there are no ideal alternatives, as other currencies and assets like the euro, gold, and bitcoin have their own limitations [2][8] - A decline in the dollar's role could lead to reduced demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, resulting in higher interest rates and increased borrowing costs for the U.S. economy [9] Group 5: U.S. Monetary Policy and Global Capital Flows - The potential restructuring of the Federal Reserve under the Trump administration could lead to faster interest rate cuts, creating a divergence in monetary policy compared to other major central banks [10][11] - If the Fed lowers rates more quickly than other central banks, it may result in capital outflows from the U.S. as investors seek higher returns elsewhere [12] Group 6: China's Economic Transition - China's economy is undergoing a critical transition, with traditional sectors like real estate declining while high-end manufacturing in AI, electric vehicles, and sustainable energy is expected to drive growth into the 2030s [3][14] - The competitive manufacturing sector in China is anticipated to strengthen despite challenges from declining traditional industries [3][14]