日本经济面临多重下行压力 日本舆论担心高市早苗错误言论将进一步冲击经济

Economic Overview - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, translating to an annualized decline of 1.8%, marking the first negative growth since Q1 2024 [1] - The economy is facing challenges including fiscal and monetary policy dilemmas, weak growth, insufficient international competitiveness, and increased tariffs from the U.S. [1] Trade and Export Impact - Japan's exports of goods and services fell by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, while imports decreased by 0.1% due to weak domestic demand, contributing negatively to economic growth by 0.2 percentage points [2] - Exports to the U.S. in the first half of FY2025 (April to September) dropped by 10.2% year-on-year, with October exports also declining by 3.1% to 1.75 trillion yen [2] - Major declines were noted in the automotive sector (7.5%), semiconductor manufacturing equipment (49.6%), and pharmaceuticals (30.8%), with the automotive sector being the largest contributor to the export decline [2] Domestic Economic Pressures - Japan's nominal wage growth was only 1.9% in September, while real wages fell by 1.4% year-on-year, leading to a decrease in disposable income for consumers [3] - Personal consumption increased by a mere 0.1% in Q3, significantly down from 0.4% in Q2, failing to provide substantial economic support [3] - The core inflation rate reached 3% in October, exceeding the central bank's target of 2%, driven by high food and energy prices [3] Small Business Challenges - The number of bankruptcies in Japan reached 965 in October, a 6.2% increase year-on-year, marking a five-month consecutive rise and the highest monthly figure of the year [3] - Small businesses, particularly those with fewer than 10 employees, are facing severe operational pressures due to rising costs without the ability to pass these costs onto consumers [3] Geopolitical and Market Reactions - Recent controversial statements by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida regarding Taiwan have damaged Japan-China relations, negatively impacting trade and economic cooperation [4] - Concerns over deteriorating Japan-China relations have led to declines in the Tokyo stock market, particularly affecting sectors reliant on Chinese tourism [4] - Predictions indicate a 3.1% year-on-year decline in net profits for companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in FY2025 [4]