“鲍威尔盟友”连续发声支持降息，市场对美联储12月降息预期大幅升至80%

Core Viewpoint - Several influential Federal Reserve officials are advocating for a rate cut in December, emphasizing that risks to the labor market outweigh inflation concerns, which has led to heightened expectations for monetary easing [1][4][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly supports a rate cut, warning of a "non-linear" deterioration in the labor market, which she considers more challenging to manage than inflation [1][4]. - Fed Governor Christopher Waller also expressed support for a December rate cut, indicating a shift towards more flexible policies starting in 2026 [5]. - New York Fed President John Williams highlighted the increased downside risks to employment as the labor market cools, suggesting that there is still room for further rate cuts in the near term [4][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the dovish comments from Fed officials, the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in December surged from approximately 40% to 80% in the interest rate swap market [1][8]. - U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the two-year Treasury yield dropping significantly over the past two trading days, and the ten-year yield reaching its lowest point of the month [1][8]. Group 3: Decision-Making Challenges - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on December 10 will occur without key employment data for October and November due to government shutdowns, adding uncertainty to the decision-making process [3]. - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve remain evident, with Boston Fed President Susan Collins advocating for a more cautious approach, suggesting that a "moderate or slightly tight" policy stance is still appropriate [6]. - Daly characterized the December decision as a "test of judgment," weighing the risks of inaction against the risks of action, asserting that the risks of not acting are higher [6].