日本舆论担心高市早苗错误言论将进一步冲击经济

Economic Overview - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 1.8% year-on-year in Q3, marking a return to negative growth since Q1 2024, amid multiple economic pressures including fiscal and monetary policy dilemmas, weak growth, and insufficient international competitiveness [1] - Concerns are rising that Prime Minister Kishi's recent controversial remarks regarding Taiwan may further impact Japan-China relations, potentially leading to another quarter of negative economic growth [1] Trade and Export Impact - Japan's exports of goods and services fell by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, while imports decreased by 0.1% due to weak domestic demand, contributing negatively to economic growth by 0.2 percentage points [2] - In the first half of FY2025 (April to September), Japan's exports to the U.S. dropped by 10.2% year-on-year, with October exports declining by 3.1% to 1.75 trillion yen (approximately 11.1 billion USD) [2] - Major declines were noted in the automotive sector (7.5%), semiconductor manufacturing equipment (49.6%), and pharmaceuticals (30.8%), with the automotive sector being the largest contributor to the export decline [2] - Tariff increases alone are estimated to have caused a loss of 1.5 trillion yen (approximately 9.6 billion USD) for Japan's seven major automotive manufacturers in the first half of FY2025 [2] Domestic Economic Conditions - Japan's nominal wage growth was only 1.9% in September, while real wages fell by 1.4% year-on-year, leading to a decrease in disposable income for consumers [3] - Personal consumption increased by a mere 0.1% in Q3, significantly down from 0.4% in Q2, failing to provide effective support for the economy [3] - Core inflation reached 3% in October, exceeding the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, driven by high food and energy prices, which continue to pressure household budgets [3] - The number of bankruptcies in Japan reached 965 in October, a 6.2% increase year-on-year, with small and micro enterprises (employing fewer than 10 people) making up about 90% of these bankruptcies [3] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The deterioration of Japan-China relations due to Kishi's remarks has negatively affected market sentiment, leading to declines in stock indices and sectors heavily reliant on Chinese tourism [4] - Predictions indicate a 3.1% year-on-year decline in net profits for companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in FY2025 [4] - Economists warn that without stable economic ties with China, Japan may face severe economic recession amid rising prices, a depreciating yen, and weak growth [4]