Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's hawkish signals and the delay in the release of November non-farm payroll data have significantly narrowed market expectations for a rate cut in December, leading to a substantial pullback in U.S. stocks. Concerns over the AI bubble and other factors have also contributed to this decline. However, the weak non-farm data from September and the tightening of financial conditions due to the stock market adjustment have rekindled expectations for a rate cut. Looking ahead, in the absence of important data, the company leans towards the Fed pausing rate cuts in December, but this pause is more of a "skip" rather than a cancellation, with a high probability of a rate cut in January next year if the December pause occurs [1]. Major Assets - The combination of the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals, concerns over the AI bubble, and weak year-end buying has led to a significant drop in U.S. stocks, with global markets also retreating. The minutes from the Fed's October meeting indicated caution regarding a December rate cut, and the announcement from the BLS about the delay in the November non-farm data release until December 16 (after the December FOMC meeting) caused market expectations for a rate cut to plummet to as low as 25%. However, the release of better-than-expected September non-farm data later in the week, despite an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate, slightly increased rate cut expectations. Overall, during the week of November 17 to November 21, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices fell by 1.9% and 2.7%, respectively, while the MSCI global index dropped by 2.5% [2][3]. Overseas Economy - The September non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, but the previous value was revised downwards, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose, leading to a slight increase in December rate cut expectations. The BLS delayed the release of the September non-farm employment data. In total, the September non-farm payrolls added 119,000 jobs, significantly above the expected 51,000, while the August figure was revised down from 22,000 to -4,000. The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%. The structural weakness in the non-farm data persists and has worsened, with the majority of new jobs in education and healthcare. Following the data release, the market's interpretation was weak, leading to renewed bets on a soft labor market and Fed rate cuts, with the probability of a December cut rising from a low of 25% to 40% [3][4]. Monetary Policy - The expectations for a December rate cut from the Federal Reserve have fluctuated, with the absence of economic data likely leading to a high probability of a "skip" rather than a cancellation of the rate cut. The combination of hawkish signals from the Fed, the BLS's announcement of delayed data, and the significant drop in the stock market has caused the federal funds futures market to experience volatility in December rate cut expectations, which fell to around 25% mid-week but later rose to 63% [4][5].
【芦哲&张佳炜】就业数据的缺席或令美联储降息延后至1月——海外周报20251123