瑞银：上调铜价展望，因矿山中断加剧供应短缺

Core Viewpoint - UBS expects copper prices to continue rising into next year due to ongoing mine disruptions leading to tighter supply and strong long-term demand driven by electrification and clean energy investments [1][2] Group 1: Price Forecast - UBS raised its copper price forecast for March 2026 by $750/ton to $11,500/ton, with June and September targets increased by $1,000/ton to $12,000/ton and $12,500/ton respectively, and a new December 2026 target of $13,000/ton [1] - The firm adjusted its market supply deficit forecast, increasing the 2025 deficit from a previous estimate of 53,000 tons to 230,000 tons, and the 2026 deficit from 87,000 tons to 407,000 tons [1] Group 2: Supply Constraints - UBS highlighted that this year's mining operational disruptions, including issues at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia, slow production recovery in Chile, and ongoing protests in Peru, underscore structural supply constraints that may persist until 2026 [1] - Freeport-McMoRan announced plans to resume production at the Grasberg mine by July [1] Group 3: Demand Growth - The firm projects global copper demand to grow by 2.8% in both 2025 and 2026, primarily supported by electric vehicles, renewable energy, grid investments, and data center demand [2] - UBS stated that any weakness in copper prices should be temporary, recommending maintaining long positions in copper or employing volatility selling strategies [2]