“鲍威尔盟友”连续发声支持降息 市场对美联储12月降息预期大幅升至80%

Core Viewpoint - The recent statements from influential Federal Reserve officials indicate a strong support for a potential interest rate cut in December, emphasizing the risks in the labor market outweighing inflation concerns [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly warned of "non-linear" deterioration risks in the labor market and supports a rate cut, stating that managing sudden labor market declines is more challenging than addressing inflation rebounds [1][4]. - Fed Governor Christopher Waller also expressed support for a December rate cut and suggested adopting a more flexible policy starting in 2026 [4]. - New York Fed President John Williams highlighted the increased downside risks to employment as the labor market cools, suggesting that there is still room for further rate cuts in the near term [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the dovish comments from Fed officials, the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in December surged from approximately 40% to 80% in the interest rate swap market [1][6]. - U.S. Treasury yields reacted positively, with the two-year Treasury yield significantly declining over the past two trading days, and the ten-year Treasury yield dropping to its lowest point this month [1][6]. Group 3: Decision-Making Challenges - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on December 10 will occur without key employment data for October and November due to government shutdowns, adding uncertainty to the decision-making process [3]. - Despite the growing dovish sentiment, there are notable divisions within the Federal Reserve, with Boston Fed President Susan Collins advocating for a more cautious approach, suggesting that a "moderate or slightly tight" policy stance remains appropriate [5]. Group 4: Technical Factors Supporting Bond Market - In addition to rate cut expectations, technical factors are also providing support to the bond market, with expectations of a monthly index rebalancing driving large funds to buy long-term bonds [8]. - A strong demand was observed in the recent $69 billion two-year Treasury auction, with the bid-to-cover ratio reaching its highest in three months [8].