Core Viewpoint - Company is rated as outperforming the industry with a target price of HKD 182.50, based on a P/S valuation method corresponding to 6.0x 2026e P/S, supported by a comprehensive product matrix and cost-reduction capabilities [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Company is a global leader in LiDAR solutions, achieving profitability for the first time in Q4 2024, marking a significant milestone as the only publicly listed LiDAR company to do so [2] - Company has maintained the top position in global LiDAR revenue from 2021 to 2024, with a leading market share [2] Group 2: Competitive Advantages - Company has established three major competitive advantages: chip technology, self-built automated production capacity, and extensive customer resources [3] - Company is a leader in chip technology, having developed its fourth-generation chip architecture, which aids in cost reduction and compact product design [3] - Self-built production capacity ensures delivery capability and cost dilution through economies of scale, while the company serves major domestic and international automotive clients [3] Group 3: Industry Growth Factors - The industry is entering a high-growth phase driven by the proliferation of urban NOA functions, the layout of L3, and decreasing LiDAR prices [4] - Company forecasts that the shipment volume of automotive LiDAR in China will exceed 3 million units in 2025 and 10 million units by 2028, with a CAGR of 58% [4] - The robotics sector, including applications like lawnmowers and logistics robots, is identified as a new growth area, with overseas markets poised for explosive growth [4] Group 4: Valuation and Price Target - Current valuation for the company's H-shares corresponds to 5.4/4.0 times P/S for 2025/2026, while U.S. shares correspond to 5.5/4.0 times P/S for the same years [4] - The target price for H-shares and U.S. shares is set at HKD 182.5 and USD 23.5 respectively, indicating an upside potential of 53% and 52% from current prices, corresponding to a Non-GAAP 35x 2026e P/E [4] Group 5: Potential Catalysts - Potential catalysts include the gradual realization of overseas orders and the ramp-up of robotic LiDAR production [5]
中金：首予禾赛-W(02525) “跑赢行业”评价 目标价182.5港元