近期债券市场回顾：债券市场相对较乐观

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has shown a downward trend in yields since the end of September, despite an overall adjustment since the beginning of the year, with the ten-year government bond yield currently around 1.8% [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Market Performance - The active ten-year government bond has switched to 250016, which has a higher yield due to VAT, currently at approximately 1.8%, compared to the previous bond 250011, which remains below 1.75% [1]. - The downward trend in bond yields is supported by positive factors, including the central bank's resumption of government bond trading operations, which alleviates market supply and demand pressure [1]. - The economic environment in October is facing challenges, with a longer holiday period and a marginal decline in the effects of previous policy stimuli, leading to a downward trend in economic performance compared to Q3 [1]. Group 2: Credit Bonds and Global Comparison - Credit bonds have shown a similar trend to government bonds, but credit spreads remain in a downward oscillation [2]. - As of October, China's ten-year government bond yield is approximately 1.84%, which is still low compared to global standards, with only Switzerland, Japan, and Singapore having lower yields [2]. - Most Western developed countries have higher government bond yields than China, with U.S. Treasury yields around 4%, indicating a significant China-U.S. yield spread [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The bond market is currently in a favorable narrow oscillation pattern, with expectations for policy easing in early next year, suggesting potential trading opportunities [4]. - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) is highlighted as a preferred tool for medium to long-term allocation and trading, offering stable duration, transparent holdings, and low fees [4].