Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-25 01:25Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage industry is expected to perform weakly in 2025, primarily due to the adjustment in the liquor sector, while the recovery trend for consumer staples remains unchanged [1][2]. Group 1: 2025 Review - The food and beverage sector's revenue increased by only 0.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, while profits decreased by 14.6%, underperforming compared to the previous year [2]. - The main factor for the weak performance is the adjustment cycle in the liquor sector, although the long-term recovery trend for consumer staples persists [2]. - The internal rhythm of the sector shows that new consumption led in the first half of the year, while traditional consumption is expected to recover in the second half, particularly in frozen foods [2]. Group 2: 2026 Outlook - The food and beverage industry is anticipated to continue presenting structural opportunities in 2026, with new consumption remaining sustainable but experiencing internal rotation [3]. - Traditional consumption is expected to improve as supply gradually clears, with potential recovery in sectors like dairy and frozen foods [3]. - The company predicts that new consumption will see internal rotation, with a shift in channel strategies and the emergence of new product categories, such as health foods and convenient foods [3]. Group 3: Liquor Sector - The liquor industry is expected to remain in an adjustment phase in 2026, gradually entering a bottoming stage with narrowing declines in sales and prices [4]. - Since Q3 2025, supply has accelerated clearance, with only a few leading brands, such as Moutai and Fenjiu, achieving positive growth [4]. - Historical patterns suggest that after a significant decline, stock prices may begin to recover as market expectations stabilize and funding conditions improve [4]. Group 4: Consumer Staples - The consumer staples sector is projected to maintain a long-term recovery trend, with new and traditional consumption rotating to drive positive index returns [5]. - Structural opportunities remain in 2026, particularly in new channels and product categories, with a focus on snack retail and health-oriented products [5]. - The gradual clearing of supply in traditional consumption is expected to enhance demand and support sector recovery [5].