农银汇理基金经理助理刘慧婷：转债创出新高，接下来怎么看?

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the equity market, influenced by geopolitical conflicts, tempered expectations for a December Fed rate cut, and profit-taking by institutions, have led to a high-level oscillation in major stock indices. This has resulted in a strong performance of convertible bonds, with indices showing significant increases since November [1]. Group 1: Convertible Bonds Performance - The convertible bond indices, including the China Securities Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index, have risen by 1.39%, 1.15%, and 1.64% respectively since November, indicating a robust market sentiment [1]. - The convertible bond market has reached a yearly high, with the Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index surpassing its August peak [1]. Group 2: Characteristics of Convertible Bonds - Convertible bonds are defined as bonds that can be converted into stocks at a predetermined price within a specified period, distinguishing them from regular credit bonds due to their conversion rights [2]. - Key features of convertible bonds include regular principal and interest payments, the ability to convert into stocks, price sensitivity to the underlying stock, and additional clauses such as redemption and put options that complicate their pricing [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The core logic supporting the current equity market bull run remains intact, driven by a low-interest-rate environment and domestic policy support, suggesting a sustained bullish trend in the domestic equity market [2]. - The pure bond market is experiencing limited disturbances due to the central bank's supportive monetary policy and a resumption of government bond trading, which keeps yields from rising significantly [3]. - The supply-demand dynamics in the convertible bond market are expected to remain tight, with limited issuance and strong demand driven by the anticipated performance of convertible bonds compared to pure bonds [3].