机构调研揭示行业矛盾：机器人爆单之后将迎交付大考

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs' supply chain report highlights a significant gap between optimistic production capacity plans and actual confirmed orders in the humanoid robot industry, indicating a typical characteristic of the current market [1] - The report titled "Capacity Optimism Ahead of Actual Orders" suggests that while key supply chain companies have planned annual production capacities ranging from 100,000 to 1,000,000 units, none have secured large, confirmed orders [1] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The release of a production video by UBTECH, showcasing their humanoid robot Walker S2, has sparked controversy due to prior skepticism from Goldman Sachs and public doubts about delivery authenticity [3] - Criticism from industry peers, such as Brett Adcock from Figure AI, claims that parts of the video were digitally altered, raising questions about the credibility of the demonstration [3] - Despite these challenges, UBTECH claims to have established partnerships with major companies like BYD and Foxconn to promote the commercial application of humanoid robots in various sectors [3] Group 2: Positive Signals - The humanoid robot sector is witnessing a surge in orders and investment, with over 18 significant contracts exceeding 10 million yuan since 2025, indicating a shift from concept validation to industrialization [5] - Investment activity has intensified, with over 100 financing events in the first half of 2025, totaling more than 15 billion yuan, and major firms like JD and Alibaba making substantial investments in the sector [6] - UBTECH has publicly disclosed multiple large orders, including a 1.59 billion yuan project for a humanoid robot data collection center, although details on operational specifics remain vague [7] Group 3: Delivery Strategies - UBTECH aims for large-scale delivery by focusing on key sectors such as automotive manufacturing and logistics, with a production capacity plan targeting 5,000 units by 2026 and 10,000 units by 2027 [8] - In contrast, Accelerated Evolution adopts a "small steps" approach, prioritizing single-unit deliveries to refine production and service capabilities before scaling up [9] - The competition in the humanoid robot sector is expected to intensify by 2025, with a focus on achieving large-scale commercial deployment and improving cost efficiency [9]