近3年，是咬牙买房，还是果断卖房？内行人：不要选错

Core Insights - The current real estate market is experiencing a significant adjustment, with a notable decline in both new and second-hand housing prices across many cities in China [3][6][9] - The buyer's market is characterized by increased choice and negotiation power for buyers, while sellers face longer selling cycles and challenges in closing deals [6][8][11] - The demographic trends indicate a continued population decline in smaller cities, while larger cities maintain relative stability in property values [9][10] Market Conditions - As of December 2024, 48 out of 70 major cities reported a month-on-month decline in new residential prices, while 55 cities saw a drop in second-hand housing prices [3] - The average selling cycle for second-hand homes has increased to 75 days, indicating a shift towards a buyer's market [8] - The national urban housing vacancy rate rose to 21.4% in 2024, highlighting a significant number of idle properties [8] Buyer Sentiment - A survey by the China Real Estate Association revealed that 65% of current buyers are driven by rigid demand, with only 7% motivated by investment [3] - The average mortgage interest rate has dropped to 3.71%, providing financial relief for potential buyers [8] Selling Dynamics - Many sellers are motivated by financial needs or property upgrades, but face longer selling times and price reductions [8][11] - The average selling cycle for second-hand homes has increased by 18 days compared to the previous year, reflecting market challenges [8] Regional Disparities - First-tier and strong second-tier cities show more stable property values, while third and fourth-tier cities experience significant price declines [9] - Population trends indicate a negative growth rate of -1.27‰ nationally, with ongoing migration towards larger cities [9] Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to enter a period of stable adjustment, with prices fluctuating within a reasonable range rather than experiencing drastic changes [10] - Buyers with genuine housing needs are encouraged to consider purchasing now, while investors should be cautious due to low rental yields and high holding costs [10][11]