盾博dbg：穆迪首席经济学家认为没有关税政策，通胀本不会发生

Core Insights - Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi suggests that the current economic troubles in the U.S. could have been avoided if the Trump administration had not implemented aggressive changes to trade rules and immigration policies [1] Inflation Trends - The consumer price inflation rate is nearing 3%, significantly exceeding the Federal Reserve's target, with indications that inflation will continue to rise [3] - After peaking at 9% in 2022, U.S. inflation experienced a cooling period, but as of April, the annual inflation rate reversed its downward trend, reflecting a rebound [3] - The latest statistics from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics show that the overall consumer price index rose by 3% year-on-year in September, up from 2.3% in April, indicating a significant reversal in inflation trends within five months [3] Factors Influencing Inflation - Higher tariff barriers have increased the cost of imported goods, while strict immigration policies have led to labor shortages, compounded by a global trend towards de-globalization, all contributing to the reversal of the inflation decline [3] - Zandi predicts that U.S. inflation will rise to approximately 3.5% next year, with a long-term expectation of remaining above 3%, far exceeding the Federal Reserve's target [3] Alternative Scenarios - Zandi believes that without the increased tariffs and with a stable flow of immigration, U.S. inflation could stabilize around 2.25% by 2026, as sufficient labor supply would alleviate worker shortages and lower labor costs [4] - Lower tariff barriers would ensure smoother supply chains and help suppress the rise in import prices, while global resource allocation would further stabilize price fluctuations [4] - The Trump administration has claimed effective control over price levels but has quietly adjusted some policies, such as removing tariffs on basic food items, indirectly acknowledging the pressure on living costs [4]