STARTRADER星迈：黄金价格稳定，假日购物数据可能导致金价波动

Core Viewpoint - Market strategist Kathy Lien suggests that the current gold price range of $4,100 per ounce may present a strategic buying opportunity for investors despite the price being relatively high [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have shown strong support around the $4,000 mark, indicating a potential bottom, but the momentum for further increases is waning [3] - The current issue in the gold market is the extreme trading congestion, with a highly concentrated market position and a high proportion of speculative funds, which could lead to a chain reaction if a triggering event occurs [3] - The potential trigger for market movement is likely to come from the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, with a current 79% probability of a rate cut in December according to CME FedWatch, although most economists have adjusted this probability down to 50% [3] Group 2: Economic Sensitivity - Gold prices have become significantly more sensitive to positive economic data, where any economic indicators exceeding expectations could reinforce the Fed's stance of maintaining current rates, thereby supporting the dollar [3] - Persistent inflation could exceed market expectations, increasing the likelihood of the Fed ending its easing cycle, which poses substantial downside risks for gold [3] Group 3: Investor Behavior and Market Risks - Lien warns that many recent investors have not experienced a deep bear market in gold and lack risk hedging awareness, having only been accustomed to a one-sided upward trend [4] - Historical corrections in the gold market tend to be "exceeding expectations," with declines often deeper than 30% and occurring rapidly, which could trigger significant market volatility [4] - Even if the Fed pauses its easing cycle, the likelihood of rate hikes in the short term remains low, providing long-term support for gold [4] Group 4: Central Bank Demand - The diversification of global central bank reserves continues, with no reduction in demand for gold allocations from various countries [4] - Even if gold prices drop to $3,300 per ounce, they would not breach the core support level established since the beginning of the year, indicating that the technical outlook remains within a long-term upward channel [4]