FINI：印尼镍冶炼厂面临停产风险 因矿石供应趋紧

Core Insights - The chairman of the Indonesian Nickel Industry Forum (FINI), Arif Perdanakusumah, warned that several nickel smelters in Indonesia may halt production if nickel ore supply remains tight [1][2] - Indonesia, holding about 45% of the world's nickel reserves, is facing a supply-demand imbalance as domestic nickel ore supply has not kept pace with the rapid expansion of smelting facilities [1][2] - The country is projected to import over 10.4 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines in 2024, with expectations to increase to approximately 15 million tons in 2025 [1] - The nickel price may surge due to tight supply, leading to high production costs and potential shutdowns of smelting plants, which could also hinder investments in Indonesia's battery and electric vehicle sectors [1] - The nickel export ban implemented in 2020 has attracted investments in Indonesia's downstream nickel industry, with smelting capacity expected to reach 1.8 million tons of secondary nickel and about 395,000 tons of primary nickel by 2024 [1] Industry Dynamics - Indonesia currently holds over 60% of the global nickel market share, becoming a significant player in the stainless steel and battery materials sectors [2] - The government has shortened the effective period of mining production quotas (RKAB) from three years to one year, tightening domestic supply amid increasing demand from smelting plants [2] - The imbalance between mineral supply and industrial demand is worsening due to the rapid expansion of smelting facilities and the shortened planning cycle for mining operations [2] - To alleviate the tight nickel ore supply, Arif urged the Indonesian government to prioritize the approval of RKAB applications for mines associated with smelting plants and to enhance exploration efforts and mining technology capabilities [2] - A solid upstream planning is essential to avoid the absurd situation of relying on imported nickel ore, ensuring that local industries in this resource-rich country do not face raw material shortages [2]