黄金今日行情走势要点分析（2025.11.25）

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The market is driven by interest rate cut expectations, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December rising from 40% to 81% following dovish signals from key Federal Reserve officials [2] - Geopolitical risks are increasing demand for safe-haven assets, as tensions escalate in Ukraine with missile launches and stalled peace negotiations [2] - Key economic data to watch includes U.S. retail sales and PPI, which are expected to support the case for interest rate cuts, enhancing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates a strong bullish trend, breaking out of previous consolidation and forming a "breakout after consolidation" pattern, suggesting accumulating bullish momentum [3] - The 5-day moving average is a critical support level at approximately 4095, indicating that if prices stabilize above this level, the bullish trend is likely to continue [3] - In the four-hour chart, gold prices are in a bullish phase, with the current upward movement confirming a rebound structure, and key resistance levels to monitor include 4151, 4160, and 4245 [5]