全球银行还在狂买黄金，俄罗斯却突然抛售！这轮牛市要结束了吗？

Core Viewpoint - The Russian Central Bank has begun selling physical gold reserves to address budget deficits, raising concerns about the potential end of the current gold bull market as global central banks continue to purchase gold aggressively [1][3][5]. Group 1: Russian Central Bank Actions - The Russian Central Bank started selling gold reserves in late November 2025 to cover a budget deficit exacerbated by frozen foreign exchange reserves due to sanctions [1][3]. - Russia's oil and gas revenues have decreased by 16.9% year-on-year in the first half of the year, leading to a fiscal deficit of 3.69 trillion rubles, nearing the annual limit [3]. - The sale of gold is a response to the inability to access approximately 300 billion euros of foreign reserves, with about 200 billion euros held in European clearing banks [1][3]. Group 2: Global Gold Market Dynamics - Despite Russia's gold sales, global central banks are expected to increase gold purchases, with Goldman Sachs predicting an average monthly purchase of 80 tons from Q4 2025 to 2026 [5]. - In the first half of 2025, global central banks net purchased 415 tons of gold, with 95% of surveyed central banks planning to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months [5][7]. - The current gold price has risen over 50% since 2025, influenced by both central bank buying and the recent news of Russia's gold sales, which may prompt some investors to take profits [5][21]. Group 3: Domestic Gold Demand in Russia - Domestic gold demand in Russia is increasing, with citizens purchasing approximately 282 tons of gold over the past four years, and an expected increase of 62.2 tons in 2025 [3][8]. - The Russian government has eliminated VAT on retail gold purchases to stimulate domestic demand, helping sanctioned mining companies find new sales channels [3][8]. - The stability of the ruble has not been significantly affected by the Central Bank's gold sales, indicating a resilient domestic market [8]. Group 4: Broader Implications for Gold as an Asset - Geopolitical tensions and high global debt levels continue to enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset and hedge against inflation [7][12]. - The liquidity and acceptance of gold as an international reserve asset remain unchanged, making it a crucial component of central bank reserves [21][30]. - Historical trends suggest that short-term market reactions to news may be smoothed by long-term trends, with central banks transitioning from net sellers to net buyers of gold post-2008 financial crisis [17][25].