全球银行购金热降温，但黄金时代远未结束

Core Insights - The global central banks' gold purchasing pace appears to be slowing down, with a reported 166 tons purchased in Q2 2025, a 21% decrease compared to the same period last year, marking the lowest quarterly gold purchase level since Q2 2022 [1][3][8] - Despite the overall slowdown, certain central banks, particularly in emerging markets, continue to increase their gold reserves, with the People's Bank of China increasing its holdings for seven consecutive months, reaching 7.383 million ounces by the end of May [1][5][6] Group 1: Central Bank Purchasing Trends - In Q1 2025, global central banks experienced a net sale of 243.67 tons of gold, the first instance of net selling [3] - The total gold purchases for the first half of 2025 amounted to 415 tons, down 21% from 525 tons in the same period of 2024 [3][12] - Poland's central bank emerged as the largest buyer in Q2, adding 19 tons to its reserves [5] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Influences - The surge in gold prices, reaching a historical high of $3,500 per ounce in April 2025, has contributed to the reduced enthusiasm for gold purchases among central banks [8] - As of Q2 2025, gold accounted for 19% of global official reserves, surpassing the euro's 16% and trailing only the dollar's 47% [8] Group 3: Future Outlook and Sentiment - A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 95% of central banks expect their gold reserves to increase in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019 [10] - The motivations for holding gold include performance during crises (85%), portfolio diversification (81%), and long-term value storage (80%) [10] - Metals Focus forecasts that global central banks are likely to purchase 1,000 tons of gold in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of significant purchases, despite a slight decrease from the previous year's record [12] Group 4: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The trend of diversification away from the dollar is expected to continue, with 73% of central banks anticipating a moderate or significant decline in the dollar's share of global reserves over the next five years [15] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties may further enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, potentially driving prices higher [13]