“美联储传声筒”：在盟友助攻下，鲍威尔12月或鹰派降息

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing significant internal divisions regarding potential interest rate cuts, with Chairman Powell's decision-making power becoming more concentrated as disagreements among committee members reach unprecedented levels [2][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Powell may consider two options to address the divisions: one is to lower interest rates as the market expects, signaling a higher threshold for future cuts; the other is to maintain current rates and reassess in January, which could prolong public disagreements [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve has already cut rates twice this year, bringing the target range to 3.75% to 4%, with a potential third cut in December aligning with Powell's plan to approach neutral rates [4][5]. - Recent comments from key allies of Powell indicate support for further rate adjustments, with market expectations for a December cut rising significantly [5][6]. Group 2: Internal Divisions and Concerns - The current divisions reflect deeper economic contradictions, with stagnant job growth and persistent inflation, indicating a potential "stagflation" scenario [3][4]. - Several voting members have expressed concerns about the pace of rate cuts, fearing that inflation pressures may be escalating, particularly in service prices, suggesting a need for more restrictive policies [6][7]. - The shift in stance from previously supportive members, such as Boston Fed President Collins, highlights the growing hesitance regarding further rate cuts amid stable demand and slightly favorable financial conditions [6][7].