旧金山联储研究：关税推通胀先抑后扬 特朗普政策适用性存疑

Core Insights - The latest research from the San Francisco Federal Reserve indicates that tariff increases have a "short-term cooling, long-term rebound" effect on inflation, suggesting that while inflation may temporarily decrease, it will eventually exceed levels without policy changes, accompanied by brief fluctuations in unemployment [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The study reveals that after a tariff increase, both consumers and businesses reduce spending due to tightened cost expectations, leading to a temporary slowdown in economic activity and a decrease in inflation [3][4]. - Specifically, a 1% increase in the average tariff rate typically results in a 10 basis point rise in unemployment after one year, with this effect dissipating in the following year [3][4]. - Initially, inflation may decrease by 10 basis points, but this cooling effect fades within the first year, followed by a cumulative increase of 10 basis points in inflation over the next two years, ultimately surpassing pre-policy intervention levels [3][4]. Group 2: Complexity of Tariff Effects - The research highlights the complexity of tariff impacts, noting that while tariffs raise prices at customs, companies may absorb costs by lowering profit margins or adjusting supply chains, and consumers may alter purchasing habits [4]. - The study emphasizes the unprecedented scale and scope of the trade war initiated by the Trump administration, with the weighted average tariff rate rising from 2.5% to 13.6%, necessitating cautious interpretation of the research findings [4]. - The current tariff policies have reportedly eroded real income growth for American households due to inflation, with core PCE inflation expected to rise by 0.8 percentage points as a result of these tariffs [4].