Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-25 04:05Core Viewpoint - The new tax regulation, effective from October 1, 2025, aims to enhance tax compliance in the traditional liquor industry, particularly targeting the opaque practices of small and medium-sized liquor merchants, leading to a significant industry reshaping and a "transparency revolution" [2][5]. Group 1: Compliance and Survival Pressure - The new regulation connects data reporting between platforms and tax authorities, rendering traditional tax evasion methods ineffective [3]. - The automatic identification of zero or low reporting and private account transactions will trigger tax audits, increasing the tax burden for merchants with monthly sales exceeding 100,000 yuan [5]. - Many small liquor merchants, previously surviving on tax loopholes, now face a critical survival test as their profit margins shrink significantly [5]. Group 2: Price System Reconstruction - The regulation is reshaping the e-commerce pricing system, moving away from the previous chaotic pricing strategies during events like Double 11 [6][7]. - Liquor prices on platforms have become more rational, with brands gaining unprecedented control over distribution channels, leading to a reduction in low-price dumping by unauthorized sellers [8]. Group 3: Channel Value Reassessment - The disappearance of e-commerce tax benefits has led to a renewed appreciation for offline channels, as they offer superior service experiences compared to online platforms [9]. - Traditional liquor stores are experiencing a revival as consumers prefer one-stop services, especially when online and offline prices are comparable [11]. Group 4: Industry Structure Reshaping - The transformation is accelerating the polarization within the liquor industry, benefiting leading brands with strong compliance and brand power while putting immense pressure on smaller players [12]. - The new regulation allows top brands to eliminate long-standing pricing issues and capture the market space left by struggling smaller merchants [12][13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - While the new regulation presents challenges, it is seen as a necessary step towards a more compliant and sustainable industry, marking the end of "wild growth" and the beginning of a "compliance-driven" era [15]. - The long-term competition in the liquor industry will focus on brand strength, service quality, and supply chain efficiency rather than mere price competition [16][17].