经济学家上调美国明年经济增长预期，预计美联储将放缓降息步伐

Economic Growth Outlook - The median forecast for U.S. economic growth in 2026 is 2%, an increase from the previous survey's 1.8% and significantly higher than the 1.3% predicted in June [1] - Economic growth is expected to be supported by stronger consumer spending and business investment, although new import tariffs may reduce growth by 0.25 percentage points or more [1] - Inflation is projected to be 2.9% for this year, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 3%, and is expected to decrease only marginally to 2.6% in 2026 [1] Employment Trends - Job growth is anticipated to remain weak, with an average monthly increase in non-farm jobs of 58,000, down from the previous estimate of 60,000 [1] - The forecast for average monthly non-farm job growth in 2026 is 64,000, lower than the earlier prediction of 75,000 [1] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% in early 2026 and remain at that level throughout the year [1] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - A 25 basis point rate cut is expected in December, with an additional 50 basis points reduction anticipated by 2026, bringing the policy rate closer to neutral [1] - Bill Gross predicts that ongoing market volatility and economic pressures will prompt the Federal Reserve to take action [3] Current Economic Performance - The U.S. economy's annualized growth rate for the second quarter is reported at 3.8%, the fastest growth since the third quarter of 2023 [2] - The Atlanta Fed has revised its third-quarter GDP growth forecast from 4.1% to 4.2% [2] - Despite strong GDP performance, concerns about a potential recession in 2026 persist, as highlighted by Jamie Dimon and Mark Zandi [2]