金荣中国：白银亚盘震荡走高，关注压力位空单布局

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices are currently around $51.39, with spot silver rising 1.7% to $50.84 per ounce, while platinum and palladium also see increases of 2.3% and 1.7% respectively [1] - Analysts suggest that gold will remain in a range-bound pattern due to the dual impact of Federal Reserve policy debates and geopolitical fluctuations [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has surged to 81%, indicating strong market belief in an imminent rate cut [1] Economic Data Release - The upcoming week will see the release of delayed economic data, including retail sales and PPI, which are expected to show weak or at least not significantly better-than-expected results [3] - If the data confirms economic cooling and manageable inflation pressures, it could solidify expectations for a December rate cut and potentially pave the way for another cut in January 2026 [3] Market Dynamics - The current silver market is characterized by a "macro-driven, event-driven" logic, with price increases primarily driven by the Fed's dovish stance, a weaker dollar, and accumulated geopolitical risk premiums [3] - The market's focus will be on upcoming PCE inflation data and GDP revision reports, which will help traders assess whether inflation is on a sustainable downward path and the prospects for an economic "soft landing" [3] Technical Analysis - Silver prices have encountered resistance around $54.4 after rising from $40, with current trading in the range of $47.8 to $53.3 [4] - The MACD indicator shows a convergence after a previous death cross, indicating a potential weakening of downward momentum, while RSI remains above 50, reflecting neutral market sentiment [4] Trading Strategy - The current trend for silver is upward, with strategies suggesting support for long positions and pressure for short positions [9] - Suggested trading plan includes a short position around $52.39 with a stop loss at $52.80 and a take profit target in the $50.30-$50.00 range [9]