Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices have rebounded significantly, currently trading around $4143 per ounce, following a strong close at $4134.54 on November 24, marking a 1.7% increase, the largest single-day gain in nearly two weeks [1] - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance has led to a surge in the probability of a rate cut in December, rising from 40% to 81%, which is a key driver behind the recent spike in gold prices [1][3] - Geopolitical tensions have escalated with Ukraine issuing emergency air alerts as Russian forces launched various missile attacks, further enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1][4] Geopolitical Risks - The situation in Ukraine has deteriorated, with emergency alerts and missile launches prompting heightened market sensitivity to geopolitical risks, which traditionally boosts gold prices [4] - Peace negotiations between the U.S. and Ukraine have stalled, with Russia rejecting proposed peace plans, indicating a potential for renewed conflict [4] Market Data and Expectations - Upcoming economic data releases, including retail sales and PPI, are expected to show weakness, reinforcing the likelihood of a rate cut in December and potentially paving the way for further cuts in early 2026 [3] - The market is closely monitoring these economic indicators as they could solidify expectations for monetary easing [3] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices have shown a bullish trend, recovering from previous losses and testing resistance levels around $4180 [6] - Short-term trading ranges are being established, with significant price movements expected as traders react to market conditions [6] Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategies include light short positions near $4180 with a stop loss at $4200 and targets around $4110/4080, as well as light long positions near $4050 with a stop loss at $4030 and targets around $4100/4130 [7]
金荣中国：现货黄金扩大隔夜反弹空间，挑战4150以上水平寻找压力
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-25 06:01