美联储12月会议突生变数！？瑞银警告：关键数据缺席，会议或“罕见顺延一周”

Core Viewpoint - UBS warns that the Federal Reserve's December FOMC meeting is facing an unusual situation, as it is scheduled to occur before two key employment reports, which are critical for assessing potential interest rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Meeting Schedule and Employment Data - The scheduling conflict arises from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' announcement that the October employment report has been canceled due to data collection issues, meaning key indicators like the unemployment rate will be unavailable [2]. - If the FOMC meets on December 10 as planned, it will lack both the October and November labor market reports, which are essential for evaluating economic conditions [2]. - UBS notes that historically, a single non-farm payroll report can significantly alter policy direction, and the absence of two reports heightens this risk [2]. Group 2: Internal Divergence Among Officials - As the December meeting approaches, there is a noticeable division among the FOMC members, with five out of twelve voting members publicly supporting the idea of maintaining current interest rates [3]. - Michael Barr emphasizes the need for caution in policy, especially given signs of weakness in the labor market [3]. - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee acknowledges the increased number of dissenting votes this year compared to previous years, viewing the debate as a healthy aspect of the decision-making process [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - The market's judgment on whether to cut rates in December has become extremely polarized, with some institutions, like Deutsche Bank, suggesting that recent comments from New York Fed President John Williams indicate a near certainty of a rate cut [4]. - Conversely, former Fed economist Claudia Sahm describes the current policy environment as highly uncertain, likening it to a "coin toss" [5]. - Since the last policy decision on October 29, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has remained silent, which Sahm interprets as a move to allow FOMC members to express diverse viewpoints in a challenging environment [5]. Group 4: Complexity of the Current Policy Decision - The Federal Reserve is at a critical juncture, facing complexities due to missing employment data, internal disagreements, and speculation about whether the meeting will be postponed [6]. - If the meeting proceeds as scheduled, decisions may be constrained by the lack of data; if postponed, it would break long-standing traditions and introduce new uncertainties [6]. Group 5: Global Market Implications - Global markets are closely monitoring this pivotal moment, as any minor actions by the Federal Reserve could significantly influence market trends as the year comes to a close [7].