Group 1 - The weakening of the yen, combined with expectations of large-scale economic stimulus, supports the possibility of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan [1] - Domestic demand remains resilient due to strong wage growth and improved household confidence, with economic growth expected to return to positive territory in Q4 [1] - The likelihood of a rate hike during the Bank of Japan's meeting on December 18-19 has increased, and the yen is currently undervalued, potentially strengthening before the meeting [1] Group 2 - Japanese government bonds may see rising yields due to market expectations that the economic stimulus measures will exceed forecasts, raising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability [1] - The Bank of Japan's quantitative tightening policy, initiated in August 2024, aims to reduce its holdings of Japanese government bonds, leading to a significant decrease in domestic bank purchases [1] - The government is worried about the yen's depreciation, particularly if the USD/JPY approaches 160, which may prompt foreign exchange intervention [2]
景顺：日本央行12月加息可能性增加 日本股票相较国债更具吸引力
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-25 06:13