美元霸权雪崩！中东集体反水，打响反美第一枪，美元已经不是唯一

Core Viewpoint - The trend of de-dollarization is gaining traction globally as countries seek to reduce reliance on the US dollar due to frequent financial sanctions and dollar hegemony [1][15] Group 1: Dollar Hegemony - The US dollar holds an irreplaceable position as the global settlement currency, with 54% of global trade denominated in dollars and 90% of foreign exchange transactions involving the dollar [1][5] - The dollar's dominance is supported by strong network effects, as 88% of currency transactions involve the dollar, making it a default choice for many countries [5][6] - The US controls the dollar settlement chain, with over 90% of cross-border dollar transactions requiring US banks for clearing, allowing the US to exert influence through financial sanctions [6][7] Group 2: Foundations of Dollar Hegemony - The first pillar of dollar hegemony is economic strength, with the US GDP rising from 5% of the global total in 1850 to 25% by 1960, establishing the dollar as the global trade currency [7][9] - The second pillar is institutional legacy, with the Bretton Woods system establishing the dollar's central role in the global monetary system, despite its collapse in 1971 [9] - The third pillar is the oil-dollar linkage, initiated by the 1974 agreement between the US and Saudi Arabia, requiring oil transactions to be conducted in dollars [9][10] Group 3: Challenges to De-dollarization - Current alternatives to the dollar face significant challenges, with Russia's SWIFT alternative covering only a small portion of global cross-border payments [10] - Other currencies like the Saudi Riyal and UAE Dirham have minimal shares in global trade financing, primarily due to a lack of liquidity and trust [10] - Despite rising calls for de-dollarization, countries still rely on the dollar for a significant portion of their transactions, indicating the dollar's continued dominance [13][14] Group 4: Future Outlook - In the short term, dollar hegemony remains strong, with over $8 trillion of US debt held by foreign entities, making a mass sell-off unlikely [12] - The trend towards de-dollarization is evident, with countries exploring local currency trade agreements, but the dollar will still dominate major commodity trade and cross-border investment [14][15] - The conclusion is that while the dollar's immediate collapse is unrealistic, the trend towards de-dollarization is significant, prompting countries to diversify their currency holdings [15]