邓正红能源软实力：地缘走向缓和重塑市场格局 12月降息概率提升 国际油价反弹

Core Insights - The easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the increased probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have led to a rebound in oil prices, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices rising by 1.34% and 1.29% respectively [1] - Morgan Stanley predicts that Brent crude oil prices will average between $57 and $58 per barrel in 2026 and 2027, with a potential drop to around $30 per barrel unless production cuts are implemented [1][5] - The soft power theory proposed by Deng Zhenghong provides a unique perspective on the current fluctuations in international oil prices, emphasizing the shift from resource control to rule reconstruction and expectation management in the oil market [2][6] Oil Market Dynamics - The Russia-Ukraine conflict's resolution is reshaping the global oil market, with Russia adapting its oil exports primarily to Asia, which now accounts for over 75% of its exports [3] - If a peace agreement is reached, it may lead to the lifting of some sanctions on Russia, potentially increasing global oil supply and stabilizing prices around $55 to $60 per barrel [3] - The rebalancing of power in oil market rules is evident as Russia shifts its export strategy towards Eastern and Southern markets, which is expected to absorb over 75% of its oil exports by 2026 [3] Federal Reserve Influence - The anticipated rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to weaken the dollar, which historically supports oil prices [4] - The market is currently focused on the dual impact of geopolitical factors and monetary policy changes on oil demand, with expectations of increased liquidity supporting a rebound in oil prices [4][6] - The interaction between monetary policy and oil market dynamics highlights the importance of soft power in shaping oil price trends [4] Sustainability of Oil Price Rebound - The sustainability of the recent rebound in oil prices is contingent on several factors, including the ability of OPEC to manage supply effectively and the demand growth from emerging markets [5] - Global oil production is projected to increase by 2.7 million barrels per day by 2025, while demand is expected to rise by only 0.9 million barrels per day, indicating a potential oversupply [5] - Morgan Stanley's price forecasts suggest that without intervention, Brent crude oil prices could fall to $30 per barrel by the end of 2027, with a trading range expected between $60 and $65 per barrel in the near term [5]