【UNforex财经事件】美元承压与避险情绪共振 黄金延续上行态势

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are supported by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions that maintain demand for safe-haven assets [1][4][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Market expectations for a December rate cut have increased significantly, with implied probabilities rising to approximately 80% [1]. - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials suggest a willingness to adjust interest rates without hindering the inflation decline process, which has influenced market sentiment [1][6]. - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic indicators, including PPI, retail sales, new home sales, and the Richmond manufacturing index, which may impact the assessment of December's policy direction [2]. Group 2: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices have found solid support around the $4022 level, with key resistance levels identified between $4177 and $4245 [2]. - The current upward momentum in gold prices is expected to continue as long as the market maintains its expectation for a rate cut in December [6]. - If U.S. economic data continues to show weakness, the dollar may weaken further, providing additional upward momentum for gold [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and instability in the Middle East, are contributing to sustained demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][5]. - The recent airstrikes in Kyiv and the intermittent ceasefire in Gaza have heightened uncertainty, prompting investors to seek refuge in gold [1][5].