中金：维持中国旺旺“跑赢行业”评级 收入稳健增长

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains a "outperform" rating for China Wangwang (00151) with a target price of HKD 5.83, primarily due to the company's strong brand power despite a 7.8% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first half of the fiscal year [1] Performance Summary - For 1HFY25, the company's revenue was CNY 11.108 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while net profit was CNY 1.717 billion, down 7.8%, slightly below market expectations due to higher operating expenses [2] Development Trends - The performance of rice snacks and leisure foods outperformed dairy beverages, with emerging channels showing good growth. Revenue growth for 1HFY25 was steady, with rice snacks, dairy beverages, and leisure foods increasing by 3.5%, decreasing by 1.1%, and increasing by 7.7% year-on-year, respectively [3] - Specific insights include: 1) Rice snack sales grew in the single digits, with new product revenue accounting for double digits 2) Dairy beverages faced slight pressure from weak industry demand, with Wangzai milk revenue declining in low single digits, while beverage subcategories saw nearly 40% revenue growth and doubled sales, benefiting from emerging channels like snack wholesale, e-commerce, and OEM 3) New product revenue in leisure foods accounted for nearly 25%, with ice cream revenue growing in double digits [3] Margin and Cost Analysis - Gross margin decreased slightly by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising costs of imported bulk powder and palm oil, along with product structure adjustments and increased share of emerging channels. Gross margins for rice snacks, dairy beverages, and leisure foods changed by +1.3, -2.5, and +1 percentage points, respectively [4] - Distribution and administrative expense ratios increased by 1.4 and 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, respectively, due to increased marketing investments and personnel costs following the establishment of product-specific divisions. Overall operating profit margin and net profit margin decreased by 3.0 and 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain steady revenue growth in the second half of the fiscal year, with snack wholesale channels likely to continue their rapid growth. However, sales performance in Q3FY25 may be under pressure due to the timing of the Spring Festival [5] - Profit margins are expected to remain stable quarter-on-quarter in the second half of the fiscal year, with the company likely to continue its investment in expenses to boost new products and emerging channel performance [5]