Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-25 06:37Core Insights - The lithium battery industry is entering a robust "reversal cycle" driven by global energy transition and AI computing power, supported by strong policies from China, the US, and Europe [1][2] - Key materials like lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium iron phosphate are experiencing rapid price rebounds, with leading companies achieving full production and sales [1] - By 2026, the global demand gap for lithium battery materials is expected to widen, favoring companies with technological barriers, cost advantages, and early overseas capacity [1] Industry Demand Drivers - The surge in storage demand, particularly from AI data centers (AIDC), is a significant driver of industry recovery, with AIDC's storage needs projected to increase from 16.5 GWh in 2024 to 209.4 GWh by 2030, a tenfold growth [2] - Policy reforms in China and the extension of storage tax credits in the US until 2036 are enhancing the economic viability of storage solutions, leading to a "rush to install" [2] Market Projections - Global electric vehicle sales are projected to reach 24.85 million units in 2026, a 17% year-on-year increase, while global storage battery shipments are expected to grow by 70% to 551 GWh in 2025, maintaining a 40% growth rate in 2026 [5] - Total global demand for dynamic storage is anticipated to reach 2482 GWh in 2026, reflecting a 26% year-on-year increase [5] Supply-Side Dynamics - The industry is shifting from a "passive destocking" phase to an "active restocking" phase, with a significant improvement in capacity utilization expected from the second half of 2025 [8] - Key materials are experiencing a pricing rebound, with lithium hexafluorophosphate prices rising from 45,000 CNY/ton to 100,000 CNY/ton, and expected average contract prices to reach around 80,000 CNY/ton by 2026 [8] Company Capacity Expansion - Major companies are expanding their effective production capacities significantly from 2023 to 2026, with notable increases from firms like BTR and Sanyou [9] - The total effective production capacity across key players is projected to grow from 219.8 million tons in 2023 to 495.9 million tons in 2026, indicating a strong supply response to rising demand [9]