“美联储通讯社”：盟友为下月降息“铺平道路”，鲍威尔将抉择“鹰派降息”还是“鸽派暂停”

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell faces a challenging decision regarding potential interest rate cuts amid conflicting economic signals, with some key allies indicating support for a preemptive easing approach [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Signals and Market Reactions - New York Fed President Williams and San Francisco Fed President Daly have expressed concerns about labor market risks, suggesting support for a rate cut in December [1]. - Following Williams' comments, the market's implied probability of a December rate cut surged from 40% to approximately 70%, indicating a shift towards a dovish stance among investors [2]. - Current market expectations for a rate cut have further increased to around 80% [2]. Group 2: Internal Divisions within the Fed - The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are reportedly at an unprecedented level during Powell's tenure, driven by mixed economic signals such as stagnant job growth and persistent inflation near 3% [7]. - Hawkish officials express concerns that rapid rate cuts could undermine necessary policy restrictions, especially as inflationary pressures spread from goods to domestic services [7]. - Notably, four voting Fed officials have voiced worries about further rate cuts, emphasizing the need for caution in the current economic climate [7]. Group 3: Strategies for Decision-Making - Powell is weighing two strategies: "hawkish rate cut" which involves cutting rates in December while setting higher thresholds for future cuts, and "dovish pause" which entails maintaining current rates and reassessing in January [5]. - The "hawkish rate cut" strategy aims to meet market expectations while managing internal dissent, similar to Powell's approach in late 2019 [5]. - The "dovish pause" could prolong existing divisions but may provide more comprehensive data for decision-making [5]. Group 4: Leadership Challenges for Powell - The upcoming decision is not only a test of economic data but also a critical evaluation of Powell's leadership and his ability to unify a divided committee [9]. - Historically, the Fed has not seen more than three dissenting votes on rate decisions since 1992, highlighting the importance of consensus [9]. - The fragile support for a December rate cut is evident, as only a slight majority favored cuts in previous meetings [9].