【UNFX财经事件】政策转向与风险升温交织 黄金受到双重支撑

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a stable upward trend, supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in Ukraine and the Middle East [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Market expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve have risen to approximately 80%, significantly higher than previous levels, following comments from several Fed officials [1] - New York Fed President John Williams indicated that short-term rate adjustments would not hinder the process of inflation reduction, while Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted that a weakening job market could prompt a 25 basis point cut in December [1][2] - Upcoming key economic data releases, including PPI, retail sales, and new home sales, may lead to adjustments in investor perceptions regarding the Fed's policy direction [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions and Safe-Haven Demand - Renewed airstrikes by Russia on Kyiv and ongoing conflicts in Gaza have heightened regional tensions, sustaining demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1] - Despite stable performance in stock markets and other risk assets, some investors continue to favor holding gold, reflecting persistent safe-haven demand [1][2] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Dynamics - Gold prices found support at $4022, with technical indicators suggesting an upward trend, while resistance levels are identified at $4177–4180, $4200, and $4245 [2] - If gold stabilizes in the $4130–4132 range, bullish momentum may continue, although potential inflation rebounds could pressure gold prices [2] - The current market environment is characterized by a combination of policy expectations and geopolitical uncertainties, with gold's appeal as a risk hedge likely to remain strong [2]