Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Michael Wilson believes that the current market weakness may indicate a positive mid-term outlook, suggesting that investors view this reset as an opportunity for potential recovery [1] - The alternative labor market data as of October shows further signs of weakness, with indicators such as the ADP report, Challenger layoffs, and continued unemployment claims pointing to a weakening job market [1] - Wilson noted that the stock market may have already priced in the changes in labor data as early as April, implying that moderate weakness in official employment data could actually benefit the stock market by prompting the Federal Reserve to consider more aggressive rate cuts [1] Group 2 - Tightening liquidity conditions have become a headwind for the market, exacerbated by the increase in the Treasury General Account (TGA) during the government shutdown and limited appropriations [2] - Despite short-term challenges, Wilson maintains a high level of confidence in the 12-month bullish outlook for the S&P 500, forecasting a 17% earnings growth by 2026, compared to the market's general expectation of 14% or lower [2] - Small-cap stocks and the consumer discretionary sector have been upgraded to overweight, with encouraging signs indicating that the breadth of earnings revisions remains resilient even amid recent sell-offs, with small-cap stocks showing the largest upside potential in forward earnings expectations [2]
大摩威尔逊: 就业数据疲软将逼美联储转向 看好小盘股及消费板块复苏
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-25 06:59