Core Viewpoint - The diversification of payment systems and currencies has become an irreversible trend in the context of increasing globalization and diversification of global trade, with a focus on enhancing trade volume and settlement in Renminbi among China and developing countries [2][6]. Group 1: International Trade and Currency Settlement - Following the exclusion of Russia from the SWIFT system, many countries have recognized the risks of over-reliance on the dollar and are seeking alternative payment systems, with China actively promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi [2]. - Since the launch of the cross-border trade Renminbi settlement pilot in 2009, the internationalization of the Renminbi has progressed significantly, with China signing bilateral currency swap agreements with 32 countries and regions, totaling over 4.5 trillion Renminbi by November 2025 [2][3]. - The Renminbi has become the third-largest payment currency globally, according to the People's Bank of China [4]. Group 2: Technological Advancements and Payment Systems - The introduction of the digital Renminbi and the establishment of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) in 2015 have provided technological support for the transformation of settlement systems, with CIPS expected to account for over 10% of global payments by 2027 [3]. - As of mid-2025, CIPS has covered 189 countries and regions, processing transactions amounting to 90.19 trillion Renminbi [3]. Group 3: Bilateral Agreements and Trade Settlements - China and Russia have nearly completely transitioned to using their own currencies for trade settlements, reducing dependence on the dollar and mitigating risks from sanctions and currency fluctuations [3]. - In the BRICS nations, 30% of trade transactions are now conducted using the Renminbi, while Saudi Arabia's Renminbi settlement for oil exports is projected to reach 45% by September 2025 [3]. - Argentina has announced plans to use the Renminbi for imports from China, and BHP has agreed to settle 30% of iron ore transactions in Renminbi by October 2025 [4]. Group 4: Global Trends and Future Directions - The trend towards a non-dollar settlement system is seen as a collaborative effort among countries, with a focus on mutual benefits rather than a direct "de-dollarization" approach [6]. - Other countries, including members of BRICS, are also taking steps to mitigate dollar risks, such as the establishment of local currency financing tools and alternative payment systems [9]. - Increasing trade volume is essential for the establishment of a credible payment system, as the legitimacy of any payment system is built on substantial trade activity [10].
特评：增加以人民币为主的非美元结算 顺应全球贸易多元化趋势
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-25 07:21