曹中铭：银行股掀增持潮 估值空间还有多大？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in bank stock purchases by major shareholders indicates strong confidence in the potential and long-term investment value of bank stocks, particularly among city commercial banks in China [1][2]. Group 1: Bank Stock Performance - Bank stocks have shown impressive performance, with a significant index increase from 2535.75 points on October 31, 2022, to a peak of 4632.44 points on July 11, 2023, marking a maximum increase of 82.69% [2]. - Agricultural Bank of China has been a standout performer, with its stock price rising from 2.07 yuan on October 31, 2022, to a high of 8.68 yuan by November 14, 2023, representing a growth of over 300% [2]. Group 2: Reasons for Shareholder Purchases - Major shareholders are increasing their stakes in bank stocks due to their attractive dividend yields, which are often higher than one-year deposit rates, making bank stocks a preferred investment over traditional savings [2]. - The strong dividend-paying capability of bank stocks, often referred to as "cash cows," is appealing to investors seeking cash returns, with many banks implementing annual and even mid-year dividends [3]. Group 3: Profitability and Valuation - The profitability of bank stocks is robust, as demonstrated by Agricultural Bank's non-GAAP net profit growth from 216.5 billion yuan in 2020 to an expected 281.6 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a consistent upward trend [3]. - The valuation of bank stocks is closely tied to their profitability; despite previous neglect by large funds, a re-evaluation of bank stocks is underway, transforming them from "market orphans" to desirable investments [4]. Group 4: Market Trends - The valuation of individual bank stocks is influenced not only by their earnings but also by overall market trends; in a bullish market, bank stock valuations tend to rise, while they may decline in a bearish market [4].