英国预算案倒计时：空头大军集结，英镑恐遭“至暗时刻”

Core Viewpoint - Traders are betting heavily on a decline of the British pound against the US dollar ahead of the upcoming UK budget, with concerns that Chancellor Reeves' proposed tax increases may further weaken the already sluggish UK economic growth [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - The volume of put options for the pound has surged to over four times that of call options in the past week, indicating a strong bearish sentiment among traders [1]. - Nomura's G10 FX strategy head, Dominic Bunning, noted that the current wave of shorting the pound suggests that the market is prepared for severe outcomes for the currency [1]. - RBC BlueBay's Chief Investment Officer, Mark Dowding, expressed skepticism about Reeves' ability to present a plan that would positively impact UK growth and support the pound [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent underperformance in UK economic growth, coupled with declining inflation, has led traders to increase bets on interest rate cuts, diminishing the currency's appeal [1]. - The pound is currently at its lowest level since April, around 1.30, and may face further declines if Reeves' tax and spending plans do not improve economic outlooks or investor confidence [1][2]. Group 3: Options Market Dynamics - The cost of put options expiring on the budget announcement day is significantly higher than that of call options, indicating that traders believe Reeves' tax plans are more likely to weaken the pound [2]. - The skew in options pricing is at its most pronounced level since January, reflecting traders' positioning against the pound's weakness [2]. Group 4: Fiscal Concerns - Concerns about the government's ability to raise funds without increasing income tax have led to skepticism regarding the fiscal measures that Reeves can implement, which may negatively impact the pound [2][3]. - Nomura's Bunning warned that without sufficient fiscal consolidation and signs of credibility, the pound could face significant selling pressure, potentially leading to a simultaneous decline in UK government bonds [3].