瀚亚投资：料美联储12月或明年1月减息0.25%

Group 1 - The market has shown resilience in a volatile environment, reaching historical highs, with expectations for growth driven by policy in major Asian economies like China, India, and Japan, while ASEAN growth is primarily supported by domestic policies [1] - The chief economist of Eastspring Investment forecasts a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate by the Federal Reserve in December 2025 or January 2026, followed by an additional 50 basis points cut in 2026 [1] - Inflation in Asia, except for South Korea and Taiwan, is below central bank targets and historical averages, leading to expectations of rate cuts in China, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand [1] Group 2 - The main risks to monetary policy and economic growth predictions stem from U.S. inflation and the strength of the dollar, which could impact the Fed's ability to cut rates and affect risk asset prices [2] - Trade policy negotiations may cause cyclical fluctuations, but the severity of these shocks is expected to be less than in the first half of 2025 [2] - Ongoing domestic policy stimulus measures are anticipated to be sufficient to buffer against related shocks [2]