美联储将做出关键抉择！考验鲍威尔的时候到了……

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the potential interest rate cut in December, highlighting the importance of Chairman Powell's decision-making amid these disagreements [1][2]. Group 1: Decision-Making Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's decision-making process has typically involved collective discussions and votes, but the current situation marks the largest internal division during Powell's tenure, emphasizing his critical role and the pressure he faces [1]. - Powell's preferred strategy appears to be "cut once, then slow down," supported by two key allies, indicating a shift towards more personal decision-making within the Fed [1][2]. Group 2: Potential Outcomes for December Meeting - Two possible routes for the December meeting are outlined: a rate cut, which aligns with market expectations and could alleviate market tensions, or maintaining the current rate until January, which may lead to market disappointment [2]. - The first option of a December rate cut could result in a record number of dissenting votes within the committee, while the second option could risk a market downturn due to perceived inaction [2]. Group 3: Support from Key Federal Reserve Officials - Powell has received support from influential figures such as New York Fed President Williams and San Francisco Fed President Daly, both of whom have publicly expressed their backing for a December rate cut [2]. - Williams indicated that there is still room for a rate cut in the short term, while Daly explicitly supported the idea of a December cut, reinforcing Powell's position within the Fed [2].