美联储的“政治降息”：明年恐超额降息150个基点，引爆短暂狂欢！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's stance is oscillating between "dovish" and "hawkish," creating uncertainty for investors regarding aggressive rate cuts in the U.S. next year, despite political pressure for rapid policy easing [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - In October, the Federal Reserve lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, but Chairman Powell's comments indicated a hawkish tone [1] - Market speculation has arisen that the extent of rate cuts may not be as significant as previously anticipated, with expectations for the federal funds rate in 2026 rising above 3% [1] - The likelihood of a rate cut in December dropped from 90% to 40% following Powell's October remarks [1] Group 2: Political Pressure and Historical Context - The Federal Reserve is under substantial political pressure from the White House to ease policies quickly, which may lead to a response similar to historical instances where presidential influence prompted faster rate cuts [2][3] - Historical analysis suggests that political interactions between U.S. presidents and Federal Reserve chairs often result in quicker rate cuts, with estimates indicating an additional 1.0 to 1.5 percentage points of cuts in the next 12 months due to current pressures [3] Group 3: Economic Implications - While rate cuts may provide a temporary boost to real GDP growth in the short term, they are unlikely to sustain long-term economic activity, leading to a rapid decline in growth once cuts cease [4] - Aggressive rate cuts influenced by political pressure have historically resulted in higher inflation, which could create a vicious cycle unless the Federal Reserve implements significant rate hikes [5] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - The potential for significant rate cuts amidst inflation running at 3% and an economy growing at nearly 4% annually poses high risks [6] - Despite public criticism, Federal Reserve officials continue to assert their independence, and if the economy slows significantly, substantial rate cuts may be warranted without leading to excessive inflation [6]