黑天鹅，突袭！刚刚，大跳水！

Market Overview - The Nikkei 225 index initially rose over 1% but later experienced a significant drop, closing with a slight increase of 0.07% at 48,659.52 points [2] - SoftBank's stock plummeted to a two-and-a-half-month low, falling nearly 10% after a previous day's drop of 10.9%, primarily due to concerns over increased competition from Alphabet's new AI model [1][2] Bond Market Dynamics - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds surged above 1.8%, while the 30-year bond yield increased by 0.5 basis points to 3.325% [2] - Concerns regarding fiscal sustainability are rising as Japan's government implements a supplementary budget of 21.3 trillion yen, approximately 3% of GDP, which may exacerbate inflation risks [4][5] Economic Implications - The fiscal stimulus is expected to boost Japan's economic growth in the short term, but the lack of monetary policy normalization could lead to increased inflation risks [4] - The yield curve reflects market concerns about future economic growth and fiscal sustainability, with long-term bond liquidity weakening due to reduced demand from Japanese insurance companies [5] Regional Market Impact - The decline in the Japanese stock market has negatively affected other regional markets, including South Korea, Hong Kong, and A-shares, which saw reduced rebound momentum [3]