楼市又要憋大招？三大信号曝光，比降息更猛！

Core Viewpoint - China is considering three major measures to stimulate the housing market, which could significantly impact market dynamics if implemented [2][8]. Group 1: Housing Loan Interest Subsidy - The first proposed measure is a housing loan interest subsidy, which could lower commercial loan rates from approximately 3.05% to between 2.0% and 2.5% by subsidizing 50 to 100 basis points [2]. - This subsidy would primarily affect new loans, leaving existing loans unchanged, thus protecting banks' interest income while providing targeted support to new buyers [2][9]. - The existing framework for consumer loans and service industry loan subsidies can be adapted for housing loans, making this measure feasible and effective [2]. Group 2: Increase in Individual Income Tax Deductions - The second measure involves increasing the individual income tax deductions for housing loans, which would benefit both new and existing loan holders, providing psychological relief to current homeowners facing high interest rates [3]. - This policy is expected to appeal to high-income individuals, who are the most active buyers in the market, potentially stimulating the second-hand housing market by encouraging them to upgrade their homes [3][9]. Group 3: Reduction of Housing Transaction Deed Tax - The third measure is a further reduction in the housing transaction deed tax, which is a local tax that could be standardized at the national level, moving away from local variations [5]. - A reduction in deed tax could lead to significant savings for buyers, such as a reduction of 160,000 for an 8 million property or 20,000 for a 2 million property, effectively lowering the financial barrier for home purchases [6]. Group 4: Market Expectations Management - The overall direction of these policies indicates a shift towards precise and targeted support for essential and improved housing needs, rather than broad stimulus measures [8][9]. - The focus is on managing market expectations to stabilize core demand and prevent a decline in market sentiment, rather than encouraging indiscriminate buying [10][11].