Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-25 09:32Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a strong rebound, driven by increased bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which has risen to 80% [1][3]. Market Performance - Major indices, including the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500, all posted gains, with the Nasdaq rising nearly 2.7% and the S&P 500 closing above 6700 points, indicating a recovery in bullish momentum [2][9]. - Notable stock performances include Google, which surged over 6% following the announcement of a cloud service agreement with NATO, and Broadcom, which rose by 11.1% as a key supplier for Google's AI chips [13][15]. Federal Reserve Signals - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials indicate a shift towards a more dovish stance, with indications that the door for a December rate cut is still open, contributing to market optimism [3][5]. - The market's reaction to these signals suggests a belief that liquidity conditions may improve, particularly as small-cap stocks show strength, which is sensitive to interest rate changes [11]. Technical Analysis - The S&P 500 index found support around the 6500-point level and has moved back above its 5-day moving average, which is a critical indicator for potential continued upward movement [7]. - The Nasdaq's ability to test and hold above its 50-day moving average further supports the notion of a strong short-term bullish trend [9]. AI Sector Developments - The AI sector is witnessing significant shifts, with Google emerging as a leader following the success of its Gemini-3 model, attracting investment away from competitors like Microsoft and Nvidia [13][17]. - Concerns are rising in the credit market regarding AI companies, as indicated by the increase in credit default swaps (CDS) for firms like Oracle, reflecting heightened perceived default risk [20]. Market Sentiment and Volatility - The volatility index (VIX) remains above 20, suggesting that while the market is currently enjoying a rally, underlying uncertainty persists, and a return to the 15-20 range would indicate a more stable environment [18][24]. - The upcoming Thanksgiving week is traditionally seen as a bullish period for the market, with traders hoping for a continuation of the current positive momentum [25].