上调预期！美国银行最新预测：2026年，黄金价格或涨到5000美元？

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a bullish outlook on gold prices, predicting that they may reach $5,000 per ounce by 2026, with current prices at $4,130, indicating a potential increase of nearly 21% [1]. Group 1: Current Market Situation - Gold prices have recently surged, with London gold reaching $4,140, up from $4,094 just two weeks prior [3]. - In China, the price of gold has risen to 1,312 RMB per gram, with a daily increase of 17 RMB, indicating strong demand for gold bars over jewelry [3]. - The average daily trading volume of gold ETFs has surpassed 12 billion RMB, with Huaan Gold ETF increasing by 9.8 billion RMB in one month [3]. - Major companies like Shandong Gold have reported nearly doubling their net profits to 4.1 billion RMB in the first three quarters, largely due to rising gold prices [3]. Group 2: Reasons for Price Increase - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in December, which typically boosts gold prices as the dollar weakens [5]. - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with China adding to its holdings for 12 consecutive months, now totaling 2,305 tons. In the first three quarters, global central banks purchased 634 tons, potentially exceeding 1,000 tons for the year [5]. - There is a significant imbalance in the gold market, with increasing demand from both central banks and industrial uses, while supply is constrained due to deeper mining operations and rising costs [5]. Group 3: Future Price Predictions - Other institutions share a positive outlook, with Goldman Sachs and UBS predicting gold prices could reach $4,900, while China International Capital Corporation estimates $4,500 [7]. - The core logic remains that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates twice next year, and the trend of central banks purchasing gold is expected to continue, providing long-term support for prices [7]. - Although short-term corrections may occur, the fundamental factors of rate cuts, central bank buying, and supply-demand tension suggest a long-term upward trend in gold prices [7].